Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Togo
43.3% win probability
Predicted winner
26.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.10 - 1.38
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Niger

1390#114
CAF
VS

Togo

1402#105
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

29.8% 26.8% 43.3%
NIG
TOG
12
Rating Gap
1.10
Exp. Goals NIG
1.38
Exp. Goals TOG
56.6%
NIG No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 20-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 6W for Niger, 8W for Togo, 6 draws. Never count either side out.

Clean Sheet Rate 8pp

Togo keep 29.6% clean sheets vs Niger's 21.3%, a 8pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.03 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Unbeaten Run 12 games

Togo's longest unbeaten run is 12 games vs Niger's 5. Togo have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: Niger: 1W-6L; Togo: 3W-3L. Edge goes to Togo if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Gap 12 pts

Togo hold a 12-point rating edge: roughly 1.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

20 meeting(s) · 2013-2026

6
NIG Win
6
Draws
8
TOG Win
27
Goals For
29
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
104
Games Played
100
23.1%
Win %
27.0%
0.95
Goals Per Game
1.12
1.50
Goals Against / Game
1.17
21.2%
Clean Sheet %
30.0%
47.1%
Failed to Score %
33.0%
9.6%
Goalless Draws %
10.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,390
Current Rating
1,402
#114
World Ranking
#105
42.6%
Win as Favourite
44.4%
18.3%
Win as Underdog
25.8%
3
Longest Win Streak
5
5
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1412 (2025)
Peak Rating
1498 (2005)
1W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

29.8% 26.8% 43.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Friendly
D 27 Dec 24 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
African Nations Championship
D 22 Dec 24 AWAY
1 - 1
African Nations Championship
A 22 Mar 24 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Friendly
H 03 Sep 22 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
African Nations Championship
H 28 Aug 22 AWAY
1 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 31 Aug 17 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
D 25 Oct 15 AWAY
1 - 1
African Nations Championship
H 17 Oct 15 AWAY
2 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 13 Jan 13 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 1
11.6%
1 - 0
9.2%
1 - 2
8.8%
0 - 0
8.4%
0 - 2
8.0%