Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Nigeria
88.7% win probability
Predicted winner
10.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.50 - 0.15
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Nigeria

1552#15
CAF
VS

Zimbabwe

1373#133
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

88.7% 10.0% 1.4%
NGA
ZIM
179
Rating Gap
2.50
Exp. Goals NGA
0.15
Exp. Goals ZIM
98.7%
NGA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Rating Gap 179 pts

Nigeria hold a 179-point rating edge: roughly 26.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

H2H Dominance 8W-1W

Nigeria hold the historical edge: 8W-4D-1L across 13 meetings.

Recent Form 6W/4W

Nigeria won 6 of their last 10 games; Zimbabwe won 4. Current form favours Nigeria.

Tournament Pedigree 2018

Both teams are major tournament winners. Nigeria's most recent title: 2012. Zimbabwe's most recent title: 2018.

Underdog Record 24% W

Zimbabwe have won 24% of games entering as underdogs (57W from 241). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 19 games

Nigeria's longest unbeaten run is 19 games vs Zimbabwe's 14. Nigeria have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

13 meeting(s) · 1991-2026

8
NGA Win
4
Draws
1
ZIM Win
23
Goals For
6
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
142
Games Played
117
49.3%
Win %
28.2%
1.49
Goals Per Game
1.15
0.96
Goals Against / Game
1.09
36.6%
Clean Sheet %
32.5%
23.9%
Failed to Score %
40.2%
7.0%
Goalless Draws %
15.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,552
Current Rating
1,373
#15
World Ranking
#133
53.0%
Win as Favourite
50.3%
29.1%
Win as Underdog
23.7%
6
Longest Win Streak
7
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
14
1562 (2026)
Peak Rating
1508 (2005)
10W-9L
Penalty Shootouts
6W-15L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

88.7% 10.0% 1.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 26 May 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly Tournament
D 25 Mar 25 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 19 Nov 23 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 08 Jun 19 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 01 Feb 14 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 27 Jan 06 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
H 08 Oct 05 AWAY
5 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 05 Sep 04 AWAY
0 - 3
FIFA World Cup
H 30 Sep 91 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
Friendly
H 25 Sep 91 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
22.1%
3 - 0
18.4%
1 - 0
17.7%
4 - 0
11.5%
0 - 0
7.1%
5 - 0
5.8%