Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Nigeria
60.0% win probability
Predicted winner
24.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.67 - 0.73
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 43%
Total goals

Nigeria

1552#15
CAF
VS

Jamaica

1472#45
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

60.0% 24.0% 16.0%
NGA
JAM
80
Rating Gap
1.67
Exp. Goals NGA
0.73
Exp. Goals JAM
84.0%
NGA No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-1W

Nigeria hold the historical edge: 3W-4D-1L across 8 meetings.

Rating Gap 80 pts

Nigeria hold a 80-point rating edge: roughly 12.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Nigeria 6/10, Jamaica 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2014

Both teams are major tournament winners. Nigeria's most recent title: 2012. Jamaica's most recent title: 2014.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 2.86 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 43%).

Underdog Record 24% W

Jamaica have won 24% of games entering as underdogs (80W from 336). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 1998-2026

3
NGA Win
4
Draws
1
JAM Win
12
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
142
Games Played
160
49.3%
Win %
44.4%
1.49
Goals Per Game
1.56
0.96
Goals Against / Game
1.16
36.6%
Clean Sheet %
33.8%
23.9%
Failed to Score %
24.4%
7.0%
Goalless Draws %
5.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,552
Current Rating
1,472
#15
World Ranking
#45
53.0%
Win as Favourite
53.3%
29.1%
Win as Underdog
23.8%
6
Longest Win Streak
7
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
23
1562 (2026)
Peak Rating
1530 (2011)
10W-9L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

60.0% 24.0% 16.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 30 May 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
Friendly Tournament
D 31 May 25 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
Friendly Tournament
D 11 Feb 09 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly
A 31 May 04 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Friendly Tournament
H 25 May 03 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly
D 20 Nov 02 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 18 May 02 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly
D 22 Feb 98 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
15.2%
2 - 0
12.7%
1 - 1
11.1%
2 - 1
9.2%
0 - 0
9.1%
3 - 0
7.1%