Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Nepal
38.1% win probability
Predicted winner
26.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.32 - 1.27
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Nepal

1283#199
AFC
VS

Laos

1283#198
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.1% 26.4% 35.5%
NEP
LAO
1
Rating Gap
1.32
Exp. Goals NEP
1.27
Exp. Goals LAO
64.5%
NEP No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Clean Sheet Rate 14pp

Nepal keep 23.5% clean sheets vs Laos's 9.1%, a 14pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 1W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Nepal 1/10, Laos 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2016

Nepal have a major tournament title to their name; Laos do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 1.84 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Unbeaten Run 11 games

Nepal's longest unbeaten run is 11 games vs Laos's 4. Nepal have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 67% PSO

Shootout record: Nepal: 4W-2L; Laos: 0W-1L. Edge goes to Nepal if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 2016-2026

3
NEP Win
3
Draws
2
LAO Win
10
Goals For
8
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
102
Games Played
67
23.5%
Win %
17.9%
0.74
Goals Per Game
0.93
1.85
Goals Against / Game
2.30
28.4%
Clean Sheet %
7.5%
53.9%
Failed to Score %
40.3%
9.8%
Goalless Draws %
3.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,283
Current Rating
1,283
#199
World Ranking
#198
48.7%
Win as Favourite
48.6%
12.9%
Win as Underdog
12.8%
4
Longest Win Streak
3
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1391 (2011)
Peak Rating
1403 (1993)
4W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.1% 26.4% 35.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Mar 26 AWAY
0 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 10 Jun 25 AWAY
2 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
A 17 Oct 23 AWAY
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 12 Oct 23 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 31 Mar 23 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly Tournament
H 22 Mar 23 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly Tournament
D 12 Nov 16 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
AFC Solidarity Cup
D 29 May 16 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
9.9%
0 - 1
9.5%
2 - 1
8.3%
1 - 2
8.0%
0 - 0
7.5%