Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Uzbekistan
37.4% win probability
Predicted winner
25.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.36 - 1.37
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Total goals

Netherlands

1543#14
UEFA
VS

Uzbekistan

1540#16
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

36.9% 25.7% 37.4%
NED
UZB
3
Rating Gap
1.36
Exp. Goals NED
1.37
Exp. Goals UZB
62.6%
NED No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

First Meeting 0 games

Netherlands and Uzbekistan have never faced each other. The prediction relies entirely on current ratings.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.80 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 51%).

Recent Form 7W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Netherlands 7/10, Uzbekistan 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Netherlands's most recent title: 1986. Uzbekistan's most recent title: 2025.

Unbeaten Run 25 games

Netherlands's longest unbeaten run is 25 games vs Uzbekistan's 19. Netherlands have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 27% PSO

Shootout record: Netherlands: 3W-8L; Uzbekistan: 1W-5L. Edge goes to Netherlands if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

No previous meetings between these teams

No previous meetings between these teams

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
117
Games Played
130
58.1%
Win %
55.4%
2.24
Goals Per Game
1.55
0.99
Goals Against / Game
0.82
37.6%
Clean Sheet %
50.0%
11.1%
Failed to Score %
27.7%
2.6%
Goalless Draws %
10.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,543
Current Rating
1,540
#14
World Ranking
#16
57.0%
Win as Favourite
60.6%
36.5%
Win as Underdog
20.8%
10
Longest Win Streak
8
25
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1638 (2010)
Peak Rating
1563 (1994)
3W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

36.9% 25.7% 37.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 1
9.0%
1 - 0
8.9%
1 - 2
8.3%
2 - 1
8.2%
0 - 0
6.6%