Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Netherlands
40.1% win probability
Predicted winner
26.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.35 - 1.21
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Netherlands

1540#17
UEFA
VS

Uzbekistan

1517#27
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

40.1% 26.5% 33.4%
NED
UZB
23
Rating Gap
1.35
Exp. Goals NED
1.21
Exp. Goals UZB
66.6%
NED No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.80 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Netherlands 6/10, Uzbekistan 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Netherlands's most recent title: 1986. Uzbekistan's most recent title: 2025.

Unbeaten Run 25 games

Netherlands's longest unbeaten run is 25 games vs Uzbekistan's 19. Netherlands have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 27% PSO

Shootout record: Netherlands: 3W-8L; Uzbekistan: 1W-5L. Edge goes to Netherlands if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
NED Win
0
Draws
0
UZB Win
2
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
120
Games Played
132
57.5%
Win %
54.5%
2.22
Goals Per Game
1.53
1.00
Goals Against / Game
0.84
36.7%
Clean Sheet %
49.2%
11.7%
Failed to Score %
28.0%
2.5%
Goalless Draws %
9.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,540
Current Rating
1,517
#17
World Ranking
#27
57.1%
Win as Favourite
60.4%
36.2%
Win as Underdog
20.6%
10
Longest Win Streak
8
25
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1638 (2010)
Peak Rating
1563 (1994)
3W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

40.1% 26.5% 33.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 08 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
10.4%
0 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
8.5%
0 - 0
7.7%
1 - 2
7.6%