Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Netherlands
47.8% win probability
Predicted winner
24.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.64 - 1.19
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 54%
Total goals

Netherlands

1568#11
UEFA
VS

Norway

1551#16
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

47.8% 24.4% 27.8%
NED
NOR
17
Rating Gap
1.64
Exp. Goals NED
1.19
Exp. Goals NOR
72.2%
NED No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 11W-5W

Netherlands hold the historical edge: 11W-7D-5L across 23 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.63 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 54%).

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Netherlands 6/10, Norway 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1986

Both teams are major tournament winners. Netherlands's most recent title: 1986. Norway's most recent title: 1929.

Unbeaten Run 25 games

Netherlands's longest unbeaten run is 25 games vs Norway's 17. Netherlands have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 27% PSO

Shootout record: Netherlands: 3W-8L; Norway: 0W-0L. Edge goes to Netherlands if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

23 meeting(s) · 1992-2026

11
NED Win
7
Draws
5
NOR Win
49
Goals For
29
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
122
Games Played
104
58.2%
Win %
52.9%
2.25
Goals Per Game
1.98
1.00
Goals Against / Game
1.08
36.1%
Clean Sheet %
37.5%
11.5%
Failed to Score %
18.3%
2.5%
Goalless Draws %
4.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,568
Current Rating
1,551
#11
World Ranking
#16
57.2%
Win as Favourite
57.0%
36.2%
Win as Underdog
23.8%
10
Longest Win Streak
9
25
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1638 (2010)
Peak Rating
1569 (2026)
3W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

47.8% 24.4% 27.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
H 16 Nov 21 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 01 Sep 21 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 10 Jun 09 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 15 Oct 08 AWAY
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 21 Aug 02 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 15 Nov 95 AWAY
3 - 0
UEFA European Championship
D 12 Oct 94 AWAY
1 - 1
UEFA European Championship
D 09 Jun 93 AWAY
0 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 23 Sep 92 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.5%
1 - 0
9.7%
2 - 1
9.4%
2 - 0
7.9%
0 - 1
7.0%
1 - 2
6.9%