Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Morocco
46.4% win probability
Predicted winner
26.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.04 - 1.45
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Netherlands

1570#13
UEFA
VS

Morocco

1617#5
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

27.3% 26.4% 46.4%
NED
MAR
47
Rating Gap
1.04
Exp. Goals NED
1.45
Exp. Goals MAR
53.7%
NED No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Underdog Record 36% W

Netherlands have won 36% of games entering as underdogs (88W from 245). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.64 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Clean Sheet Rate 13pp

Morocco keep 48.5% clean sheets vs Netherlands's 35.2%, a 13pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 5W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Netherlands 5/10, Morocco 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of Morocco's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 1994-2026

2
NED Win
1
Draws
1
MAR Win
6
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
123
Games Played
180
57.7%
Win %
66.1%
2.24
Goals Per Game
1.83
1.00
Goals Against / Game
0.54
35.8%
Clean Sheet %
57.8%
11.4%
Failed to Score %
19.4%
2.4%
Goalless Draws %
11.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,570
Current Rating
1,617
#13
World Ranking
#5
57.2%
Win as Favourite
56.8%
35.9%
Win as Underdog
34.6%
10
Longest Win Streak
13
25
Longest Unbeaten Run
34
1638 (2010)
Peak Rating
1638 (2026)
3W-9L
Penalty Shootouts
8W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

27.3% 26.4% 46.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 29 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 31 May 17 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
A 28 Apr 99 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
H 29 Jun 94 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
12.0%
1 - 2
9.0%
0 - 2
8.7%
1 - 0
8.6%
0 - 0
8.3%