Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Martinique
43.8% win probability
Predicted winner
25.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.50 - 1.22
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Total goals

Martinique

1357#148
CONCACAF
VS

El Salvador

1376#129
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.8% 25.4% 30.8%
MTQ
SLV
19
Rating Gap
1.50
Exp. Goals MTQ
1.22
Exp. Goals SLV
69.2%
MTQ No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Martinique 1/10, El Salvador 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.09 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 51%).

Tournament Pedigree 1993

Both teams are major tournament winners. Martinique's most recent title: 1993. El Salvador's most recent title: 1954.

Penalty Shootouts 70% PSO

Shootout record: Martinique: 7W-3L; El Salvador: 3W-2L. Edge goes to Martinique if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Gap 19 pts

El Salvador hold a 19-point rating edge: roughly 2.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Rating Trajectory -26 pts

El Salvador are gaining momentum recently (-26 pts). Martinique have moved -43 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 2003-2026

2
MTQ Win
1
Draws
2
SLV Win
3
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
87
Games Played
141
41.4%
Win %
34.0%
1.44
Goals Per Game
1.06
1.28
Goals Against / Game
1.21
37.9%
Clean Sheet %
34.0%
29.9%
Failed to Score %
39.7%
9.2%
Goalless Draws %
7.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,357
Current Rating
1,376
#148
World Ranking
#129
53.5%
Win as Favourite
53.3%
26.2%
Win as Underdog
22.4%
9
Longest Win Streak
7
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
10
1500 (2016)
Peak Rating
1519 (2021)
7W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.8% 25.4% 30.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 29 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
CONCACAF Series
D 17 Oct 23 AWAY
0 - 0
Copa América
H 13 Oct 23 AWAY
1 - 0
Copa América
A 26 Jun 23 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
CONCACAF Gold Cup
A 16 Jul 03 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.0%
0 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
7.4%
1 - 2
7.3%