Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Jamaica
67.3% win probability
Predicted winner
21.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.62 - 1.87
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Martinique

1357#146
CONCACAF
VS

Jamaica

1472#45
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

11.6% 21.1% 67.3%
MTQ
JAM
114
Rating Gap
0.62
Exp. Goals MTQ
1.87
Exp. Goals JAM
32.7%
MTQ No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/5W

Jamaica won 5 of their last 10 games; Martinique won 1. Current form favours Jamaica.

H2H Dominance 3W-0W

Jamaica hold the historical edge: 3W-5D-0L across 8 meetings.

Rating Gap 114 pts

Jamaica hold a 114-point rating edge: roughly 17.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.19 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Tournament Pedigree 2014

Both teams are major tournament winners. Martinique's most recent title: 1993. Jamaica's most recent title: 2014.

Underdog Record 26% W

Martinique have won 26% of games entering as underdogs (27W from 103). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 1992-2026

0
MTQ Win
5
Draws
3
JAM Win
3
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
87
Games Played
160
41.4%
Win %
44.4%
1.44
Goals Per Game
1.56
1.28
Goals Against / Game
1.16
37.9%
Clean Sheet %
33.8%
29.9%
Failed to Score %
24.4%
9.2%
Goalless Draws %
5.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,357
Current Rating
1,472
#146
World Ranking
#45
53.5%
Win as Favourite
53.3%
26.2%
Win as Underdog
23.8%
9
Longest Win Streak
7
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
23
1500 (2016)
Peak Rating
1530 (2011)
7W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

11.6% 21.1% 67.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 21 Feb 26 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
D 12 Nov 14 AWAY
1 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup
D 10 Dec 12 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
CONCACAF Gold Cup
D 28 Mar 03 AWAY
2 - 2
CONCACAF Gold Cup
D 27 Jul 01 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly Tournament
H 15 May 01 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup
D 30 May 93 AWAY
0 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup
H 24 Jun 92 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
15.5%
0 - 2
14.5%
1 - 1
9.6%
0 - 3
9.0%
1 - 2
9.0%
0 - 0
8.3%