Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Martinique
38.7% win probability
Predicted winner
26.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.33 - 1.25
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Martinique

1357#146
CONCACAF
VS

Cuba

1363#143
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.7% 26.5% 34.8%
MTQ
CUB
5
Rating Gap
1.33
Exp. Goals MTQ
1.25
Exp. Goals CUB
65.2%
MTQ No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 6W-3W

Cuba hold the historical edge: 6W-4D-3L across 13 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.25 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Recent Form 1W/3W

Cuba won 3 of their last 10 games; Martinique won 1. Current form favours Cuba.

Tournament Pedigree 2012

Both teams are major tournament winners. Martinique's most recent title: 1993. Cuba's most recent title: 2012.

Penalty Shootouts 70% PSO

Shootout record: Martinique: 7W-3L; Cuba: 3W-5L. Edge goes to Martinique if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Trajectory +3 pts

Cuba are gaining momentum recently (+3 pts). Martinique have moved -43 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

13 meeting(s) · 2002-2026

3
MTQ Win
4
Draws
6
CUB Win
9
Goals For
13
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
87
Games Played
91
41.4%
Win %
37.4%
1.44
Goals Per Game
1.31
1.28
Goals Against / Game
1.75
37.9%
Clean Sheet %
39.6%
29.9%
Failed to Score %
40.7%
9.2%
Goalless Draws %
7.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,357
Current Rating
1,363
#146
World Ranking
#143
53.5%
Win as Favourite
47.3%
26.2%
Win as Underdog
24.9%
9
Longest Win Streak
7
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
14
1500 (2016)
Peak Rating
1519 (2005)
7W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.7% 26.5% 34.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 26 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 2
CONCACAF Series
A 15 Nov 25 AWAY
0 - 2
CONCACAF Series
A 19 Jun 19 NEUTRAL
0 - 3
CONCACAF Gold Cup
H 08 Dec 12 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
CONCACAF Gold Cup
A 28 Nov 10 AWAY
0 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup
D 12 Nov 06 AWAY
0 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup
A 21 Dec 04 AWAY
0 - 2
CFU Caribbean Cup
H 12 Dec 04 AWAY
2 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup
D 08 Jan 04 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 29 Nov 02 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
10.1%
0 - 1
9.4%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
7.9%
0 - 0
7.6%