Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Niger
36.1% win probability
Predicted winner
28.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.17 - 1.18
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Mauritania

1374#129
CAF
VS

Niger

1390#114
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

35.9% 28.0% 36.1%
MTN
NIG
16
Rating Gap
1.17
Exp. Goals MTN
1.18
Exp. Goals NIG
63.9%
MTN No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 1.69 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Recent Form 2W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Mauritania 2/10, Niger 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 14% 0-0

14.2% of Mauritania's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Unbeaten Run 15 games

Mauritania's longest unbeaten run is 15 games vs Niger's 5. Mauritania have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 14% PSO

Shootout record: Mauritania: 0W-2L; Niger: 1W-6L. Edge goes to Niger if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Trajectory +25 pts

Niger are gaining momentum recently (+25 pts). Mauritania have moved -15 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 1983-2026

3
MTN Win
2
Draws
4
NIG Win
7
Goals For
12
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
127
Games Played
104
32.3%
Win %
23.1%
0.77
Goals Per Game
0.95
1.09
Goals Against / Game
1.50
41.7%
Clean Sheet %
21.2%
46.5%
Failed to Score %
47.1%
17.3%
Goalless Draws %
9.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,374
Current Rating
1,390
#129
World Ranking
#114
50.0%
Win as Favourite
42.6%
15.2%
Win as Underdog
18.3%
4
Longest Win Streak
3
15
Longest Unbeaten Run
5
1453 (2023)
Peak Rating
1412 (2025)
0W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

35.9% 28.0% 36.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 08 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly
H 14 Jan 23 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
H 05 Sep 17 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
H 31 Mar 15 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
D 05 Mar 14 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
A 26 Jul 91 AWAY
0 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
H 12 Oct 90 AWAY
7 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
D 14 Jul 83 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 26 Jun 83 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 1
11.2%
1 - 0
11.2%
0 - 0
9.6%
1 - 2
7.8%
2 - 1
7.7%