Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Mauritius
45.1% win probability
Predicted winner
25.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.49 - 1.15
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Mauritius

1303#186
CAF
VS

Somalia

1294#192
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

45.1% 25.7% 29.2%
MRI
SOM
9
Rating Gap
1.49
Exp. Goals MRI
1.15
Exp. Goals SOM
70.8%
MRI No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Mauritius keep 22.5% clean sheets vs Somalia's 13.6%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 1.75 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Recent Form 0W/1W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Mauritius 0/10, Somalia 1/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2003

Mauritius have a major tournament title to their name; Somalia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 17 games

Mauritius's longest unbeaten run is 17 games vs Somalia's 4. Mauritius have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

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Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
MRI Win
2
Draws
0
SOM Win
0
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
84
Games Played
36
16.7%
Win %
8.3%
0.68
Goals Per Game
0.44
1.49
Goals Against / Game
1.64
25.0%
Clean Sheet %
25.0%
51.2%
Failed to Score %
61.1%
11.9%
Goalless Draws %
19.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,303
Current Rating
1,294
#186
World Ranking
#192
45.1%
Win as Favourite
26.7%
18.7%
Win as Underdog
7.9%
17
Longest Win Streak
1
17
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1409 (1988)
Peak Rating
1377 (1994)
4W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

45.1% 25.7% 29.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 31 Mar 26 AWAY
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 27 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
10.7%
2 - 1
9.1%
0 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
8.0%
0 - 0
7.2%