Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Slovenia
51.0% win probability
Predicted winner
26.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.84 - 1.44
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 40%
Total goals

Montenegro

1349#150
UEFA
VS

Slovenia

1412#93
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

22.1% 26.9% 51.0%
MNE
SVN
63
Rating Gap
0.84
Exp. Goals MNE
1.44
Exp. Goals SVN
49.0%
MNE No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/1W

Montenegro won 4 of their last 10 games; Slovenia won 1. Current form favours Montenegro.

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 63 pts

Slovenia hold a 63-point rating edge: roughly 9.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 16% W

Montenegro have won 16% of games entering as underdogs (16W from 98). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.42 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 40%).

When Favourite 59% W

Slovenia win 59% of games when entering as the favoured side (77W from 130). Reliable frontrunners.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 2007-2026

0
MNE Win
1
Draws
3
SVN Win
3
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
98
Games Played
105
32.7%
Win %
38.1%
1.15
Goals Per Game
1.24
1.40
Goals Against / Game
0.94
31.6%
Clean Sheet %
40.0%
37.8%
Failed to Score %
29.5%
10.2%
Goalless Draws %
12.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,349
Current Rating
1,412
#150
World Ranking
#93
59.4%
Win as Favourite
59.2%
16.3%
Win as Underdog
20.1%
4
Longest Win Streak
4
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1458 (2011)
Peak Rating
1500 (1991)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

22.1% 26.9% 51.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 3
Friendly
H 20 Nov 22 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
A 02 Jun 18 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
D 22 Aug 07 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
14.7%
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 2
10.6%
0 - 0
10.2%
1 - 2
8.9%
1 - 0
8.6%