Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Mexico
86.5% win probability
Predicted winner
11.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.36 - 0.18
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Mexico

1584#6
CONCACAF
VS

Ghana

1425#76
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

86.5% 11.6% 1.9%
MEX
GHA
159
Rating Gap
2.36
Exp. Goals MEX
0.18
Exp. Goals GHA
98.1%
MEX No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/3W

Mexico won 7 of their last 10 games; Ghana won 3. Current form favours Mexico.

H2H Dominance 5W-0W

Mexico hold the historical edge: 5W-0D-0L across 5 meetings.

Rating Gap 159 pts

Mexico hold a 159-point rating edge: roughly 23.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 33% W

Ghana have won 33% of games entering as underdogs (71W from 217). A strong record against the odds.

Win Streak 4 games

Mexico are currently on a 4-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.31 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 2006-2026

5
MEX Win
0
Draws
0
GHA Win
8
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
192
Games Played
122
57.8%
Win %
36.1%
1.60
Goals Per Game
1.22
0.92
Goals Against / Game
1.05
48.4%
Clean Sheet %
35.2%
23.4%
Failed to Score %
34.4%
9.4%
Goalless Draws %
11.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,584
Current Rating
1,425
#6
World Ranking
#76
57.2%
Win as Favourite
51.6%
32.6%
Win as Underdog
32.7%
17
Longest Win Streak
10
22
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1616 (2005)
Peak Rating
1542 (2008)
8W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-12L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

86.5% 11.6% 1.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 22 May 26 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
H 14 Oct 23 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
H 28 Jun 17 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly
H 26 Mar 08 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Friendly
H 01 Mar 06 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
22.0%
1 - 0
18.6%
3 - 0
17.3%
4 - 0
10.2%
0 - 0
7.9%
5 - 0
4.8%