Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

England
58.6% win probability
Predicted winner
23.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.81 - 1.71
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Mexico

1562#13
CONCACAF
VS

England

1642#3
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

17.6% 23.8% 58.6%
MEX
ENG
80
Rating Gap
0.81
Exp. Goals MEX
1.71
Exp. Goals ENG
41.4%
MEX No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/8W

England won 8 of their last 10 games; Mexico won 5. Current form favours England.

H2H Dominance 7W-2W

England hold the historical edge: 7W-1D-2L across 10 meetings.

Underdog Record 31% W

Mexico have won 31% of games entering as underdogs (67W from 217). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.95 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Rating Gap 80 pts

England hold a 80-point rating edge: roughly 12.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Win Streak 3 games

England are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

10 meeting(s) · 1959-2026

2
MEX Win
1
Draws
7
ENG Win
6
Goals For
26
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
200
Games Played
144
57.0%
Win %
63.9%
1.58
Goals Per Game
2.14
0.93
Goals Against / Game
0.73
48.0%
Clean Sheet %
52.8%
23.5%
Failed to Score %
16.0%
9.0%
Goalless Draws %
8.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,562
Current Rating
1,642
#13
World Ranking
#3
56.9%
Win as Favourite
62.5%
30.9%
Win as Underdog
33.9%
11
Longest Win Streak
10
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1615 (2005)
Peak Rating
1642 (2026)
8W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

17.6% 23.8% 58.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 05 Jul 26
2 - 3
FIFA World Cup
H 24 May 10
3 - 1
Friendly
H 25 May 01
4 - 0
Friendly
H 29 Mar 97
2 - 0
Friendly
A 17 May 86NEUTRAL
0 - 3
Friendly
H 09 Jun 85
1 - 0
Friendly
D 01 Jun 69
0 - 0
Friendly
A 16 Jul 66
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 10 May 61
8 - 0
Friendly
H 24 May 59
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.7%
0 - 2
11.7%
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 0
8.1%
0 - 3
6.7%