Match-Up Lab
Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.
Pick a Match-Up
Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.
Rating-Based Prediction
WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance
Key Factors
Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome
Mexico won 7 of their last 10 games; Ecuador won 4. Current form favours Mexico.
Mexico hold the historical edge: 17W-8D-4L across 29 meetings.
Mexico keep 42.5% clean sheets vs Ecuador's 28.9%, a 14pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.
Mexico hold a 87-point rating edge: roughly 13.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.
Combined avg of 2.97 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).
Both teams are major tournament winners. Mexico's most recent title: 2025. Ecuador's most recent title: 1965.
AI Match-Up Evaluation
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Head-to-Head Record
29 meeting(s) · 2011-2026
Comparative Profile
Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.
Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)
Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis
Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)
Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?
Scenario Modeller
Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.
Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes
Recent Meetings
If they play 100 times
Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.