Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Maldives
41.1% win probability
Predicted winner
25.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.46 - 1.29
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Maldives

1274#204
AFC
VS

Timor-Leste

1286#195
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

41.1% 25.4% 33.5%
MDV
TLS
12
Rating Gap
1.46
Exp. Goals MDV
1.29
Exp. Goals TLS
66.5%
MDV No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 13pp

Maldives keep 22.5% clean sheets vs Timor-Leste's 9.4%, a 13pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 2W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Maldives 2/10, Timor-Leste 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2018

Maldives have a major tournament title to their name; Timor-Leste do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.15 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

Rating Trajectory +32 pts

Timor-Leste are gaining momentum recently (+32 pts). Maldives have moved -30 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2025-2026

1
MDV Win
0
Draws
1
TLS Win
2
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
80
Games Played
56
30.0%
Win %
14.3%
1.16
Goals Per Game
0.86
2.04
Goals Against / Game
3.07
22.5%
Clean Sheet %
12.5%
37.5%
Failed to Score %
41.1%
2.5%
Goalless Draws %
3.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,274
Current Rating
1,286
#204
World Ranking
#195
47.8%
Win as Favourite
20.0%
14.6%
Win as Underdog
12.5%
3
Longest Win Streak
2
6
Longest Unbeaten Run
2
1413 (2011)
Peak Rating
1329 (2014)
1W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

41.1% 25.4% 33.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 10 Jun 25 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
AFC Asian Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
9.3%
2 - 1
8.8%
0 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
7.8%
2 - 0
6.8%