Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Pakistan
39.6% win probability
Predicted winner
26.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.27 - 1.38
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Maldives

1274#204
AFC
VS

Pakistan

1304#184
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

34.3% 26.1% 39.6%
MDV
PAK
30
Rating Gap
1.27
Exp. Goals MDV
1.38
Exp. Goals PAK
60.4%
MDV No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 12-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 4W for Maldives, 5W for Pakistan, 3 draws. Never count either side out.

Recent Form 2W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Maldives 2/10, Pakistan 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Win Streak 3 games

Pakistan are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Tournament Pedigree 2018

Both teams are major tournament winners. Maldives's most recent title: 2018. Pakistan's most recent title: 1991.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.19 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Rating Trajectory +41 pts

Pakistan are gaining momentum recently (+41 pts). Maldives have moved -30 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

12 meeting(s) · 1989-2026

4
MDV Win
3
Draws
5
PAK Win
10
Goals For
12
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
80
Games Played
43
30.0%
Win %
16.3%
1.16
Goals Per Game
0.53
2.04
Goals Against / Game
2.28
22.5%
Clean Sheet %
20.9%
37.5%
Failed to Score %
62.8%
2.5%
Goalless Draws %
7.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,274
Current Rating
1,304
#204
World Ranking
#184
47.8%
Win as Favourite
46.4%
14.6%
Win as Underdog
15.2%
3
Longest Win Streak
3
6
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1413 (2011)
Peak Rating
1390 (1982)
1W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

34.3% 26.1% 39.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 04 Jun 26 AWAY
0 - 3
Friendly Tournament
H 21 Mar 23 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 14 Feb 13 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly
D 12 Feb 13 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 04 Dec 11 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
SAFF Championship
H 03 Jun 08 AWAY
3 - 0
SAFF Championship
D 11 Dec 05 AWAY
0 - 0
SAFF Championship
A 18 Jan 03 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
SAFF Championship
H 29 Dec 91 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
South Asian Games
H 24 Oct 89 AWAY
2 - 0
South Asian Games

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 0
9.0%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.8%
0 - 0
7.1%