Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Maldives
38.3% win probability
Predicted winner
26.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.34 - 1.27
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Maldives

1274#204
AFC
VS

Afghanistan

1284#197
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.3% 26.3% 35.3%
MDV
AFG
10
Rating Gap
1.34
Exp. Goals MDV
1.27
Exp. Goals AFG
64.6%
MDV No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 2W/1W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Maldives 2/10, Afghanistan 1/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2018

Both teams are major tournament winners. Maldives's most recent title: 2018. Afghanistan's most recent title: 2013.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.14 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Penalty Shootouts 25% PSO

Shootout record: Maldives: 1W-3L; Afghanistan: 0W-1L. Edge goes to Maldives if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Gap 10 pts

Afghanistan hold a 10-point rating edge: roughly 1.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Rating Trajectory -30 pts

Maldives are gaining momentum recently (-30 pts). Afghanistan have moved -41 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 2005-2026

2
MDV Win
2
Draws
3
AFG Win
15
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
80
Games Played
80
30.0%
Win %
20.0%
1.16
Goals Per Game
0.72
2.04
Goals Against / Game
1.85
22.5%
Clean Sheet %
20.0%
37.5%
Failed to Score %
42.5%
2.5%
Goalless Draws %
10.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,274
Current Rating
1,284
#204
World Ranking
#197
47.8%
Win as Favourite
38.4%
14.6%
Win as Underdog
6.8%
3
Longest Win Streak
5
6
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1413 (2011)
Peak Rating
1435 (2014)
1W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.3% 26.3% 35.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 01 Jun 26 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly Tournament
H 06 Jun 17 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Friendly
H 28 Dec 15 NEUTRAL
4 - 1
SAFF Championship
D 29 May 14 AWAY
1 - 1
AFC Challenge Cup
D 06 Sep 13 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
SAFF Championship
H 07 Dec 09 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
SAFF Championship
H 07 Dec 05 NEUTRAL
9 - 1
SAFF Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
9.9%
0 - 1
9.4%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
8.0%
0 - 0
7.4%