Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Bulgaria
64.7% win probability
Predicted winner
20.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.79 - 1.95
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Moldova

1281#200
UEFA
VS

Bulgaria

1354#147
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

14.3% 20.9% 64.7%
MDA
BUL
74
Rating Gap
0.79
Exp. Goals MDA
1.95
Exp. Goals BUL
35.2%
MDA No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 0W/3W

Bulgaria won 3 of their last 10 games; Moldova won 0. Current form favours Bulgaria.

Limited H2H Data 3 games

Only 3 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 1932

Bulgaria have a major tournament title to their name; Moldova do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 74 pts

Bulgaria hold a 74-point rating edge: roughly 11.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 10% W

Moldova have won 10% of games entering as underdogs (24W from 232). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 11 games

Bulgaria's longest unbeaten run is 11 games vs Moldova's 5. Bulgaria have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

3 meeting(s) · 1994-2026

0
MDA Win
1
Draws
2
BUL Win
3
Goals For
9
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
107
Games Played
99
17.8%
Win %
25.3%
0.72
Goals Per Game
1.02
1.94
Goals Against / Game
1.63
21.5%
Clean Sheet %
23.2%
47.7%
Failed to Score %
36.4%
7.5%
Goalless Draws %
8.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,281
Current Rating
1,354
#200
World Ranking
#147
50.0%
Win as Favourite
50.8%
10.3%
Win as Underdog
25.1%
3
Longest Win Streak
5
5
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1511 (1991)
Peak Rating
1508 (1995)
0W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

14.3% 20.9% 64.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 05 Jun 26 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
A 26 Apr 95 AWAY
0 - 3
UEFA European Championship
H 16 Nov 94 AWAY
4 - 1
UEFA European Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
12.6%
0 - 2
12.3%
1 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 3
8.0%
0 - 0
6.4%