Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Morocco
94.9% win probability
Predicted winner
4.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
3.40 - 0.15
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.5
Over 2.5: 69%
Total goals

Morocco

1619#1
CAF
VS

Tanzania

1389#116
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

94.9% 4.5% 0.6%
MAR
TAN
230
Rating Gap
3.40
Exp. Goals MAR
0.15
Exp. Goals TAN
99.4%
MAR No Defeat
3.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Rating Gap 230 pts

Morocco hold a 230-point rating edge: roughly 34.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 5W/1W

Morocco won 5 of their last 10 games; Tanzania won 1. Current form favours Morocco.

H2H Dominance 8W-1W

Morocco hold the historical edge: 8W-0D-1L across 9 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 20pp

Morocco keep 48.5% clean sheets vs Tanzania's 28.3%, a 20pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of Morocco's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Morocco's most recent title: 2025. Tanzania's most recent title: 2010.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 2010-2026

8
MAR Win
0
Draws
1
TAN Win
16
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
175
Games Played
125
66.3%
Win %
28.8%
1.83
Goals Per Game
0.82
0.53
Goals Against / Game
1.03
58.3%
Clean Sheet %
32.8%
19.4%
Failed to Score %
44.8%
11.4%
Goalless Draws %
12.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,619
Current Rating
1,389
#1
World Ranking
#116
56.8%
Win as Favourite
35.8%
34.7%
Win as Underdog
24.2%
13
Longest Win Streak
6
34
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1632 (2026)
Peak Rating
1455 (2009)
7W-9L
Penalty Shootouts
8W-10L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

94.9% 4.5% 0.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 04 Jan 26 AWAY
1 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
A 22 Aug 25 AWAY
0 - 1
African Nations Championship
H 25 Mar 25 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 17 Jan 24 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
A 21 Nov 23 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 08 Jun 13 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 24 Mar 13 AWAY
3 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 09 Oct 11 AWAY
3 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
A 09 Oct 10 AWAY
0 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
3 - 0
18.8%
2 - 0
16.6%
4 - 0
16.0%
5 - 0
10.9%
1 - 0
9.8%
0 - 0
2.9%