Match-Up Lab
Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.
Pick a Match-Up
Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.
Rating-Based Prediction
WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance
Key Factors
Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome
Kenya hold the historical edge: 5W-5D-1L across 11 meetings.
Kenya hold a 95-point rating edge: roughly 14.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.
Kenya won 4 of their last 10 games; Lesotho won 2. Current form favours Kenya.
Kenya have a major tournament title to their name; Lesotho do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.
14.1% of Lesotho's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.
Combined avg of 2.02 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 44%).
AI Match-Up Evaluation
Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.
Head-to-Head Record
11 meeting(s) · 1978-2026
Comparative Profile
Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.
Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)
Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis
Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)
Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?
Scenario Modeller
Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.
Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes
Recent Meetings
If they play 100 times
Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.