Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Saint Lucia
51.9% win probability
Predicted winner
23.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.76 - 1.14
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 55%
Total goals

Saint Lucia

1355#147
CONCACAF
VS

Bermuda

1284#197
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

51.9% 23.5% 24.6%
LCA
BER
71
Rating Gap
1.76
Exp. Goals LCA
1.14
Exp. Goals BER
75.4%
LCA No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/0W

Saint Lucia won 4 of their last 10 games; Bermuda won 0. Current form favours Saint Lucia.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 71 pts

Saint Lucia hold a 71-point rating edge: roughly 10.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Win Streak 3 games

Saint Lucia are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Goal Patterns 2.9 xG

Combined avg of 3.00 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.9 (Over 2.5 probability: 55%).

Tournament Pedigree 2014

Both teams are major tournament winners. Saint Lucia's most recent title: 2014. Bermuda's most recent title: 2013.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 1990-2026

1
LCA Win
0
Draws
1
BER Win
5
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
61
Games Played
87
39.3%
Win %
28.7%
1.18
Goals Per Game
1.60
1.54
Goals Against / Game
2.20
23.0%
Clean Sheet %
21.8%
36.1%
Failed to Score %
26.4%
6.6%
Goalless Draws %
5.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,355
Current Rating
1,284
#147
World Ranking
#197
47.8%
Win as Favourite
50.0%
25.2%
Win as Underdog
21.3%
5
Longest Win Streak
4
6
Longest Unbeaten Run
10
1428 (1993)
Peak Rating
1455 (2015)
2W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

51.9% 23.5% 24.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 28 Sep 26
5 - 2
CONCACAF Nations League
A 13 May 90
0 - 2
CFU Caribbean Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 0
9.7%
2 - 0
8.5%
1 - 2
6.3%
0 - 1
6.3%