Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Libya
50.9% win probability
Predicted winner
25.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.58 - 1.00
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Libya

1420#83
CAF
VS

Niger

1392#110
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

50.9% 25.2% 23.9%
LBY
NIG
28
Rating Gap
1.58
Exp. Goals LBY
1.00
Exp. Goals NIG
76.1%
LBY No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 5W-0W

Libya hold the historical edge: 5W-6D-0L across 11 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 10pp

Libya keep 31.2% clean sheets vs Niger's 21.3%, a 10pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2012

Libya have a major tournament title to their name; Niger do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 13 games

Libya's longest unbeaten run is 13 games vs Niger's 5. Libya have shown greater resilience historically.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.26 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Rating Gap 28 pts

Libya hold a 28-point rating edge: roughly 4.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

11 meeting(s) · 1992-2026

5
LBY Win
6
Draws
0
NIG Win
17
Goals For
8
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
105
Games Played
104
30.5%
Win %
23.1%
1.07
Goals Per Game
0.95
1.15
Goals Against / Game
1.50
29.5%
Clean Sheet %
21.2%
38.1%
Failed to Score %
47.1%
13.3%
Goalless Draws %
9.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,420
Current Rating
1,392
#83
World Ranking
#110
44.0%
Win as Favourite
43.3%
28.8%
Win as Underdog
18.2%
6
Longest Win Streak
3
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
5
1505 (2012)
Peak Rating
1416 (2025)
8W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

50.9% 25.2% 23.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 27 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly
D 17 Oct 23 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
A 17 Nov 22 NEUTRAL
2 - 3
Friendly
A 26 Mar 22 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Friendly
D 17 Jan 21 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 07 Sep 19 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
D 15 Nov 13 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
D 17 Nov 10 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly Tournament
H 27 Aug 08 AWAY
6 - 2
Friendly
D 09 Aug 92 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
12.0%
1 - 1
12.0%
2 - 0
9.5%
2 - 1
9.5%
0 - 0
7.6%
0 - 1
7.6%