Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Libya
55.2% win probability
Predicted winner
24.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.86 - 1.62
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Liberia

1368#140
CAF
VS

Libya

1420#84
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

20.0% 24.8% 55.2%
LBR
LBY
52
Rating Gap
0.86
Exp. Goals LBR
1.62
Exp. Goals LBY
44.8%
LBR No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 2012

Libya have a major tournament title to their name; Liberia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 52 pts

Libya hold a 52-point rating edge: roughly 7.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 23% W

Liberia have won 23% of games entering as underdogs (64W from 282). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.22 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

When Favourite 44% W

Libya win 44% of games when entering as the favoured side (88W from 199). Reliable frontrunners.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 2008-2026

1
LBR Win
1
Draws
2
LBY Win
7
Goals For
9
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
77
Games Played
105
27.3%
Win %
30.5%
0.86
Goals Per Game
1.07
1.44
Goals Against / Game
1.15
22.1%
Clean Sheet %
29.5%
44.2%
Failed to Score %
38.1%
5.2%
Goalless Draws %
13.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,368
Current Rating
1,420
#140
World Ranking
#84
41.9%
Win as Favourite
44.2%
22.7%
Win as Underdog
28.7%
5
Longest Win Streak
6
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1457 (2001)
Peak Rating
1505 (2012)
0W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
8W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

20.0% 24.8% 55.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
Friendly
A 14 Oct 23 NEUTRAL
2 - 3
Friendly
A 14 Jun 21 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Friendly
H 27 May 08 AWAY
4 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.5%
1 - 1
11.7%
0 - 2
10.9%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 0
8.3%
1 - 0
7.2%