Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Uruguay
45.9% win probability
Predicted winner
26.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.02 - 1.41
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 44%
Total goals

Saudi Arabia

1456#54
AFC
VS

Uruguay

1509#32
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

27.3% 26.8% 45.9%
KSA
URU
52
Rating Gap
1.02
Exp. Goals KSA
1.41
Exp. Goals URU
54.1%
KSA No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Recent Form 2W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Saudi Arabia 2/10, Uruguay 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.09 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 44%).

Tournament Pedigree 2011

Both teams are major tournament winners. Saudi Arabia's most recent title: 2005. Uruguay's most recent title: 2011.

Rating Gap 52 pts

Uruguay hold a 52-point rating edge: roughly 7.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 27% W

Saudi Arabia have won 27% of games entering as underdogs (64W from 235). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 2002-2026

1
KSA Win
2
Draws
1
URU Win
5
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
171
Games Played
119
44.4%
Win %
45.4%
1.36
Goals Per Game
1.45
1.01
Goals Against / Game
0.92
42.7%
Clean Sheet %
47.1%
29.2%
Failed to Score %
30.3%
11.1%
Goalless Draws %
16.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,456
Current Rating
1,509
#54
World Ranking
#32
55.6%
Win as Favourite
55.7%
27.2%
Win as Underdog
29.1%
11
Longest Win Streak
7
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
18
1577 (2002)
Peak Rating
1585 (2024)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

27.3% 26.8% 45.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 15 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 20 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 10 Oct 14 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 27 Mar 02 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
9.0%
1 - 2
8.9%
0 - 0
8.8%
0 - 2
8.7%