Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Senegal
64.8% win probability
Predicted winner
23.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.56 - 1.68
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.2
Over 2.5: 39%
Total goals

Saudi Arabia

1468#49
AFC
VS

Senegal

1577#8
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

11.9% 23.2% 64.8%
KSA
SEN
109
Rating Gap
0.56
Exp. Goals KSA
1.68
Exp. Goals SEN
35.1%
KSA No Defeat
2.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 3W/7W

Senegal won 7 of their last 10 games; Saudi Arabia won 3. Current form favours Senegal.

Limited H2H Data 3 games

Only 3 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 109 pts

Senegal hold a 109-point rating edge: roughly 16.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2022

Both teams are major tournament winners. Saudi Arabia's most recent title: 2005. Senegal's most recent title: 2022.

Goal Patterns 2.2 xG

Combined avg of 2.89 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.2 (Over 2.5 probability: 39%).

Underdog Record 28% W

Saudi Arabia have won 28% of games entering as underdogs (64W from 233). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

3 meeting(s) · 1998-2026

2
KSA Win
1
Draws
0
SEN Win
6
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
169
Games Played
164
45.0%
Win %
60.4%
1.37
Goals Per Game
1.59
0.99
Goals Against / Game
0.63
43.2%
Clean Sheet %
54.3%
29.0%
Failed to Score %
18.3%
11.2%
Goalless Draws %
9.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,468
Current Rating
1,577
#49
World Ranking
#8
55.6%
Win as Favourite
55.7%
27.5%
Win as Underdog
27.8%
11
Longest Win Streak
10
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
24
1577 (2002)
Peak Rating
1595 (2026)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
15W-13L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

11.9% 23.2% 64.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 09 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly
H 14 May 02 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly
H 17 Sep 98 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
17.8%
0 - 2
15.0%
0 - 0
10.6%
1 - 1
10.0%
1 - 2
8.4%
0 - 3
8.4%