Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Egypt
56.3% win probability
Predicted winner
25.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.79 - 1.59
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Saudi Arabia

1457#53
AFC
VS

Egypt

1533#22
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

18.5% 25.1% 56.3%
KSA
EGY
76
Rating Gap
0.79
Exp. Goals KSA
1.59
Exp. Goals EGY
43.6%
KSA No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/4W

Egypt won 4 of their last 10 games; Saudi Arabia won 1. Current form favours Egypt.

H2H Dominance 4W-2W

Egypt hold the historical edge: 4W-1D-2L across 7 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.18 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Rating Gap 76 pts

Egypt hold a 76-point rating edge: roughly 11.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2008

Both teams are major tournament winners. Saudi Arabia's most recent title: 2005. Egypt's most recent title: 2008.

Underdog Record 27% W

Saudi Arabia have won 27% of games entering as underdogs (64W from 236). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1975-2026

2
KSA Win
1
Draws
4
EGY Win
9
Goals For
11
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
172
Games Played
138
44.2%
Win %
53.6%
1.35
Goals Per Game
1.43
1.00
Goals Against / Game
0.75
43.0%
Clean Sheet %
49.3%
29.7%
Failed to Score %
19.6%
11.6%
Goalless Draws %
8.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,457
Current Rating
1,533
#53
World Ranking
#22
55.6%
Win as Favourite
57.0%
27.1%
Win as Underdog
29.8%
11
Longest Win Streak
9
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1577 (2002)
Peak Rating
1600 (2010)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
13W-11L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

18.5% 25.1% 56.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 27 Mar 26 AWAY
0 - 4
Friendly
H 25 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 25 Nov 07 AWAY
2 - 1
Pan Arab Games
A 14 Mar 05 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
A 29 Jul 99 NEUTRAL
1 - 5
FIFA Confederations Cup
D 14 Nov 88 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 23 Dec 75 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
14.8%
0 - 2
11.7%
1 - 1
11.6%
0 - 0
9.3%
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 0
7.3%