Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Palestine
57.9% win probability
Predicted winner
23.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.85 - 1.72
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Kyrgyzstan

1366#141
AFC
VS

Palestine

1422#81
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

18.4% 23.7% 57.9%
KGZ
PLE
55
Rating Gap
0.85
Exp. Goals KGZ
1.72
Exp. Goals PLE
42.1%
KGZ No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-1W

Kyrgyzstan hold the historical edge: 3W-5D-1L across 9 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 13pp

Palestine keep 34.7% clean sheets vs Kyrgyzstan's 21.8%, a 13pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 1W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Kyrgyzstan 1/10, Palestine 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Palestine have a major tournament title to their name; Kyrgyzstan do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

12.8% of Palestine's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Rating Gap 55 pts

Palestine hold a 55-point rating edge: roughly 8.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 2006-2026

3
KGZ Win
5
Draws
1
PLE Win
8
Goals For
6
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
98
Games Played
110
35.7%
Win %
37.3%
1.44
Goals Per Game
1.37
1.46
Goals Against / Game
1.05
22.4%
Clean Sheet %
47.3%
31.6%
Failed to Score %
40.9%
5.1%
Goalless Draws %
17.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,366
Current Rating
1,422
#141
World Ranking
#81
50.0%
Win as Favourite
60.0%
18.1%
Win as Underdog
10.9%
4
Longest Win Streak
7
5
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1507 (1992)
Peak Rating
1463 (2017)
0W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

18.4% 23.7% 57.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 09 Jun 26 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
D 06 Jun 26 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 02 Sep 21 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly Tournament
D 11 Jun 19 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
A 31 Dec 18 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Friendly
D 06 Sep 18 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 19 May 14 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
AFC Challenge Cup
D 30 Mar 09 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
AFC Challenge Cup
A 09 Apr 06 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
AFC Challenge Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.2%
0 - 2
11.3%
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 0
7.7%
1 - 0
6.5%