Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Madagascar
57.5% win probability
Predicted winner
22.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.95 - 1.81
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Kyrgyzstan

1366#141
AFC
VS

Madagascar

1425#77
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

19.6% 22.9% 57.5%
KGZ
MAD
58
Rating Gap
0.95
Exp. Goals KGZ
1.81
Exp. Goals MAD
42.5%
KGZ No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/6W

Madagascar won 6 of their last 10 games; Kyrgyzstan won 1. Current form favours Madagascar.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

Madagascar have a major tournament title to their name; Kyrgyzstan do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 58 pts

Madagascar hold a 58-point rating edge: roughly 8.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 18% W

Kyrgyzstan have won 18% of games entering as underdogs (23W from 127). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 12 games

Madagascar's longest unbeaten run is 12 games vs Kyrgyzstan's 5. Madagascar have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
KGZ Win
0
Draws
1
MAD Win
2
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
98
Games Played
125
35.7%
Win %
38.4%
1.44
Goals Per Game
1.18
1.46
Goals Against / Game
1.18
22.4%
Clean Sheet %
32.8%
31.6%
Failed to Score %
32.0%
5.1%
Goalless Draws %
8.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,366
Current Rating
1,425
#141
World Ranking
#77
50.0%
Win as Favourite
51.3%
18.1%
Win as Underdog
25.4%
4
Longest Win Streak
6
5
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1507 (1992)
Peak Rating
1458 (1993)
0W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-7L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

19.6% 22.9% 57.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 28 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 5
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
11.5%
1 - 1
10.9%
0 - 2
10.4%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 0
6.4%
0 - 3
6.2%