Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Kenya
61.9% win probability
Predicted winner
22.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.80 - 0.77
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Kenya

1407#97
CAF
VS

Estonia

1332#162
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

61.9% 22.6% 15.5%
KEN
EST
75
Rating Gap
1.80
Exp. Goals KEN
0.77
Exp. Goals EST
84.5%
KEN No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Recent Form 4W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Kenya 4/10, Estonia 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Rating Gap 75 pts

Kenya hold a 75-point rating edge: roughly 11.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2026

Both teams are major tournament winners. Kenya's most recent title: 2017. Estonia's most recent title: 2026.

Underdog Record 18% W

Estonia have won 18% of games entering as underdogs (72W from 411). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 13 games

Kenya's longest unbeaten run is 13 games vs Estonia's 8. Kenya have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
KEN Win
1
Draws
0
EST Win
1
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
111
Games Played
120
37.8%
Win %
25.0%
1.12
Goals Per Game
0.89
1.04
Goals Against / Game
1.71
36.0%
Clean Sheet %
28.3%
30.6%
Failed to Score %
46.7%
10.8%
Goalless Draws %
10.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,407
Current Rating
1,332
#97
World Ranking
#162
44.0%
Win as Favourite
47.4%
28.5%
Win as Underdog
17.5%
6
Longest Win Streak
3
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1487 (2003)
Peak Rating
1403 (2018)
10W-13L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

61.9% 22.6% 15.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 27 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.8%
2 - 0
12.4%
1 - 1
10.6%
2 - 1
9.5%
0 - 0
7.7%
3 - 0
7.4%