Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

South Africa
36.8% win probability
Predicted winner
28.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.12 - 1.16
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 40%
Total goals

Jamaica

1472#45
CONCACAF
VS

South Africa

1460#57
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

34.8% 28.5% 36.8%
JAM
RSA
12
Rating Gap
1.12
Exp. Goals JAM
1.16
Exp. Goals RSA
63.3%
JAM No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/3W

Jamaica won 5 of their last 10 games; South Africa won 3. Current form favours Jamaica.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of South Africa's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2021

Both teams are major tournament winners. Jamaica's most recent title: 2014. South Africa's most recent title: 2021.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.71 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 40%).

Penalty Shootouts 56% PSO

Shootout record: Jamaica: 5W-4L; South Africa: 12W-14L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Trajectory -8 pts

Jamaica are gaining momentum recently (-8 pts). South Africa have moved -39 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 1999-2026

0
JAM Win
5
Draws
1
RSA Win
5
Goals For
7
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
160
Games Played
151
44.4%
Win %
42.4%
1.56
Goals Per Game
1.35
1.16
Goals Against / Game
0.87
33.8%
Clean Sheet %
42.4%
24.4%
Failed to Score %
29.1%
5.6%
Goalless Draws %
17.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,472
Current Rating
1,460
#45
World Ranking
#57
53.3%
Win as Favourite
51.8%
23.8%
Win as Underdog
31.1%
7
Longest Win Streak
7
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
23
1530 (2011)
Peak Rating
1522 (1996)
5W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
12W-14L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

34.8% 28.5% 36.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 06 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
H 28 Apr 10 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Friendly
D 17 Nov 09 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
D 10 Jul 05 NEUTRAL
3 - 3
CONCACAF Gold Cup
D 30 Apr 03 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
D 09 May 99 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 1
11.8%
1 - 0
11.4%
0 - 0
10.2%
1 - 2
7.7%
2 - 1
7.4%