Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Nigeria
59.8% win probability
Predicted winner
24.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.73 - 1.67
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 43%
Total goals

Jamaica

1472#43
CONCACAF
VS

Nigeria

1551#15
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

16.2% 24.1% 59.8%
JAM
NGA
80
Rating Gap
0.73
Exp. Goals JAM
1.67
Exp. Goals NGA
40.3%
JAM No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-1W

Nigeria hold the historical edge: 3W-4D-1L across 8 meetings.

Rating Gap 80 pts

Nigeria hold a 80-point rating edge: roughly 11.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 5W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Jamaica 5/10, Nigeria 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2014

Both teams are major tournament winners. Jamaica's most recent title: 2014. Nigeria's most recent title: 2012.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 2.86 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 43%).

Underdog Record 24% W

Jamaica have won 24% of games entering as underdogs (80W from 336). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 1998-2026

1
JAM Win
4
Draws
3
NGA Win
7
Goals For
12
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
160
Games Played
142
44.4%
Win %
49.3%
1.56
Goals Per Game
1.49
1.16
Goals Against / Game
0.96
33.8%
Clean Sheet %
36.6%
24.4%
Failed to Score %
23.9%
5.6%
Goalless Draws %
7.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,472
Current Rating
1,551
#43
World Ranking
#15
53.3%
Win as Favourite
53.0%
23.8%
Win as Underdog
29.1%
7
Longest Win Streak
6
23
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1530 (2011)
Peak Rating
1561 (2026)
5W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

16.2% 24.1% 59.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 30 May 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 3
Friendly Tournament
D 31 May 25 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
Friendly Tournament
D 11 Feb 09 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly
A 31 May 04 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Friendly Tournament
H 25 May 03 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly
D 20 Nov 02 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 18 May 02 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly
D 22 Feb 98 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
15.1%
0 - 2
12.6%
1 - 1
11.1%
1 - 2
9.2%
0 - 0
9.1%
0 - 3
7.0%