Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Ecuador
58.7% win probability
Predicted winner
24.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.78 - 1.67
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 44%
Total goals
VS

Ecuador

1514#33
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

17.2% 24.1% 58.7%
IVC
ECU
101
Rating Gap
0.78
Exp. Goals IVC
1.67
Exp. Goals ECU
41.3%
IVC No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Underdog Record 35% W

Ivory Coast have won 35% of games entering as underdogs (28W from 81). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 101 pts

Ecuador hold a 101-point rating edge: roughly 15.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 6W/4W

Ivory Coast won 6 of their last 10 games; Ecuador won 4. Current form favours Ivory Coast.

Tournament Pedigree 2022

Both teams are major tournament winners. Ivory Coast's most recent title: 2022. Ecuador's most recent title: 1965.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 2.85 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 44%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
IVC Win
0
Draws
0
ECU Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
2
Games Played
116
100.0%
Win %
37.1%
1.50
Goals Per Game
1.26
0.50
Goals Against / Game
1.03
50.0%
Clean Sheet %
38.8%
0.0%
Failed to Score %
31.0%
0.0%
Goalless Draws %
16.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,413
Current Rating
1,514
-
World Ranking
#33
52.0%
Win as Favourite
51.6%
34.6%
Win as Underdog
23.2%
7
Longest Win Streak
6
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1491 (1985)
Peak Rating
1524 (2026)
1W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

17.2% 24.1% 58.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 14 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
14.4%
0 - 2
12.0%
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 0
8.6%
0 - 3
6.7%