Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Iraq
62.7% win probability
Predicted winner
22.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.84 - 0.78
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Iraq

1488#39
AFC
VS

Venezuela

1429#70
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

62.7% 22.1% 15.2%
IRQ
VEN
59
Rating Gap
1.84
Exp. Goals IRQ
0.78
Exp. Goals VEN
84.8%
IRQ No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 17pp

Iraq keep 40.7% clean sheets vs Venezuela's 24.2%, a 17pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 5W/3W

Iraq won 5 of their last 10 games; Venezuela won 3. Current form favours Iraq.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Iraq's most recent title: 2025. Venezuela's most recent title: 1982.

Rating Gap 59 pts

Iraq hold a 59-point rating edge: roughly 8.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 23% W

Venezuela have won 23% of games entering as underdogs (92W from 396). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
IRQ Win
0
Draws
1
VEN Win
0
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
156
Games Played
107
47.4%
Win %
30.8%
1.35
Goals Per Game
1.10
0.88
Goals Against / Game
1.28
42.3%
Clean Sheet %
31.8%
30.1%
Failed to Score %
33.6%
14.7%
Goalless Draws %
11.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,488
Current Rating
1,429
#39
World Ranking
#70
54.8%
Win as Favourite
43.7%
23.7%
Win as Underdog
23.2%
8
Longest Win Streak
5
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1544 (2024)
Peak Rating
1470 (2024)
13W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

62.7% 22.1% 15.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 09 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.4%
2 - 0
12.4%
1 - 1
10.4%
2 - 1
9.6%
3 - 0
7.6%
0 - 0
7.3%