Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Iraq
82.7% win probability
Predicted winner
12.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.49 - 0.42
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 56%
Total goals

Iraq

1488#39
AFC
VS

Bolivia

1369#138
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

82.7% 12.8% 4.5%
IRQ
BOL
119
Rating Gap
2.49
Exp. Goals IRQ
0.42
Exp. Goals BOL
95.5%
IRQ No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/2W

Iraq won 5 of their last 10 games; Bolivia won 2. Current form favours Iraq.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 119 pts

Iraq hold a 119-point rating edge: roughly 17.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Clean Sheet Rate 21pp

Iraq keep 40.7% clean sheets vs Bolivia's 20.1%, a 21pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Iraq's most recent title: 2025. Bolivia's most recent title: 1963.

Underdog Record 20% W

Bolivia have won 20% of games entering as underdogs (96W from 474). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2018-2026

1
IRQ Win
1
Draws
0
BOL Win
2
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
156
Games Played
111
47.4%
Win %
22.5%
1.35
Goals Per Game
0.91
0.88
Goals Against / Game
1.95
42.3%
Clean Sheet %
23.4%
30.1%
Failed to Score %
45.0%
14.7%
Goalless Draws %
6.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,488
Current Rating
1,369
#39
World Ranking
#138
54.8%
Win as Favourite
39.4%
23.7%
Win as Underdog
20.3%
8
Longest Win Streak
5
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1544 (2024)
Peak Rating
1476 (1997)
13W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

82.7% 12.8% 4.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 20 Nov 18 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
16.9%
3 - 0
14.1%
1 - 0
13.6%
4 - 0
8.7%
2 - 1
7.1%
3 - 1
5.9%