Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Hong Kong
39.8% win probability
Predicted winner
25.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.33 - 1.44
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

India

1359#151
AFC
VS

Hong Kong

1373#136
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

34.8% 25.4% 39.8%
IND
HKG
14
Rating Gap
1.33
Exp. Goals IND
1.44
Exp. Goals HKG
60.2%
IND No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 9W-5W

India hold the historical edge: 9W-4D-5L across 18 meetings.

Recent Form 3W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: India 3/10, Hong Kong 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

India have a major tournament title to their name; Hong Kong do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.86 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

Penalty Shootouts 36% PSO

Shootout record: India: 4W-7L; Hong Kong: 4W-7L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Trajectory +11 pts

India are gaining momentum recently (+11 pts). Hong Kong have moved -28 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

18 meeting(s) · 1971-2026

9
IND Win
4
Draws
5
HKG Win
38
Goals For
22
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
117
Games Played
107
35.9%
Win %
28.0%
1.25
Goals Per Game
1.18
1.14
Goals Against / Game
1.53
35.9%
Clean Sheet %
27.1%
31.6%
Failed to Score %
49.5%
12.0%
Goalless Draws %
8.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,359
Current Rating
1,373
#151
World Ranking
#136
50.2%
Win as Favourite
59.2%
22.2%
Win as Underdog
16.8%
9
Longest Win Streak
7
13
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1464 (2018)
Peak Rating
1445 (1985)
4W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-7L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

34.8% 25.4% 39.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 10 Jun 25 AWAY
1 - 0
AFC Asian Cup
H 14 Jun 22 AWAY
4 - 0
AFC Asian Cup
A 04 Oct 10 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 14 Jan 09 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
D 18 Feb 06 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
A 13 Jun 93 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
FIFA World Cup
A 11 May 93 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 29 Jul 74 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
Merdeka Tournament
A 13 Aug 71 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Merdeka Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.0%
0 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
8.6%
1 - 0
8.3%
2 - 1
8.0%
0 - 2
6.5%