Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Vietnam
54.7% win probability
Predicted winner
23.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.00 - 1.74
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Indonesia

1409#96
AFC
VS

Vietnam

1470#42
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

21.7% 23.6% 54.7%
IDN
VIE
60
Rating Gap
1.00
Exp. Goals IDN
1.74
Exp. Goals VIE
45.3%
IDN No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/9W

Vietnam won 9 of their last 10 games; Indonesia won 5. Current form favours Vietnam.

Win Streak 5 games

Vietnam are currently on a 5-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 31-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 11W for Indonesia, 9W for Vietnam, 11 draws. Never count either side out.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.34 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

Rating Gap 60 pts

Vietnam hold a 60-point rating edge: roughly 9.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Indonesia's most recent title: 1991. Vietnam's most recent title: 2024.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

31 meeting(s) · 2016-2024

11
IDN Win
11
Draws
9
VIE Win
36
Goals For
35
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
123
Games Played
125
39.0%
Win %
50.4%
1.62
Goals Per Game
1.62
1.64
Goals Against / Game
1.05
33.3%
Clean Sheet %
40.0%
32.5%
Failed to Score %
27.2%
8.9%
Goalless Draws %
8.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,409
Current Rating
1,470
#96
World Ranking
#42
61.3%
Win as Favourite
62.9%
18.9%
Win as Underdog
24.0%
10
Longest Win Streak
7
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
18
1498 (1969)
Peak Rating
1488 (2019)
10W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

21.7% 23.6% 54.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 15 Dec 24 AWAY
1 - 0
AFF Championship
A 26 Mar 24 AWAY
0 - 3
FIFA World Cup
H 21 Mar 24 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 19 Jan 24 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 09 Jan 23 AWAY
2 - 0
AFF Championship
D 06 Jan 23 AWAY
0 - 0
AFF Championship
D 15 Dec 21 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
AFF Championship
H 07 Jun 21 NEUTRAL
4 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 15 Oct 19 AWAY
1 - 3
FIFA World Cup
D 07 Dec 16 AWAY
2 - 2
AFF Championship

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.2%
0 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 2
9.7%
1 - 0
6.4%
0 - 0
6.4%