Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Vietnam
63.6% win probability
Predicted winner
21.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.82 - 1.93
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Indonesia

1432#77
AFC
VS

Vietnam

1517#26
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

15.2% 21.2% 63.6%
IDN
VIE
85
Rating Gap
0.82
Exp. Goals IDN
1.93
Exp. Goals VIE
36.4%
IDN No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 32-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 11W for Indonesia, 10W for Vietnam, 11 draws. Never count either side out.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.39 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

Rating Gap 85 pts

Vietnam hold a 85-point rating edge: roughly 12.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 6W/7W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Indonesia 6/10, Vietnam 7/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2026

Both teams are major tournament winners. Indonesia's most recent title: 2026. Vietnam's most recent title: 2026.

Underdog Record 19% W

Indonesia have won 19% of games entering as underdogs (70W from 369). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

32 meeting(s) · 2019-2026

11
IDN Win
11
Draws
10
VIE Win
36
Goals For
38
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
130
Games Played
137
40.0%
Win %
52.6%
1.70
Goals Per Game
1.70
1.58
Goals Against / Game
0.99
33.8%
Clean Sheet %
42.3%
31.5%
Failed to Score %
26.3%
9.2%
Goalless Draws %
8.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,432
Current Rating
1,517
#77
World Ranking
#26
60.8%
Win as Favourite
63.6%
19.0%
Win as Underdog
23.6%
10
Longest Win Streak
14
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
26
1505 (1969)
Peak Rating
1546 (2026)
11W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

15.2% 21.2% 63.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 03 Aug 26
0 - 3
ASEAN Championship
H 15 Dec 24
1 - 0
ASEAN Championship
A 26 Mar 24
0 - 3
FIFA World Cup
H 21 Mar 24
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 19 Jan 24NEUTRAL
0 - 1
AFC Asian Cup
H 09 Jan 23
2 - 0
ASEAN Championship
D 06 Jan 23
0 - 0
ASEAN Championship
D 15 Dec 21NEUTRAL
0 - 0
ASEAN Championship
H 07 Jun 21NEUTRAL
4 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 15 Oct 19
1 - 3
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
12.3%
0 - 2
11.9%
1 - 1
10.1%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 3
7.7%
0 - 0
6.4%