Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Indonesia
56.3% win probability
Predicted winner
22.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.86 - 1.05
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 55%
Total goals

Indonesia

1409#96
AFC
VS

Saint Kitts and Nevis

1341#157
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

56.3% 22.6% 21.2%
IDN
SKN
68
Rating Gap
1.86
Exp. Goals IDN
1.05
Exp. Goals SKN
78.9%
IDN No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.9 xG

Combined avg of 3.41 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.9 (Over 2.5 probability: 55%).

Recent Form 5W/3W

Indonesia won 5 of their last 10 games; Saint Kitts and Nevis won 3. Current form favours Indonesia.

Tournament Pedigree 1991

Indonesia have a major tournament title to their name; Saint Kitts and Nevis do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 68 pts

Indonesia hold a 68-point rating edge: roughly 10.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 25% W

Saint Kitts and Nevis have won 25% of games entering as underdogs (24W from 95). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
IDN Win
0
Draws
0
SKN Win
4
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
123
Games Played
89
39.0%
Win %
40.4%
1.62
Goals Per Game
1.44
1.64
Goals Against / Game
1.53
33.3%
Clean Sheet %
33.7%
32.5%
Failed to Score %
36.0%
8.9%
Goalless Draws %
6.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,409
Current Rating
1,341
#96
World Ranking
#157
61.5%
Win as Favourite
50.7%
19.0%
Win as Underdog
25.3%
10
Longest Win Streak
5
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1498 (1969)
Peak Rating
1450 (2016)
10W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

56.3% 22.6% 21.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Mar 26 AWAY
4 - 0
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
10.7%
1 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
9.9%
2 - 0
9.4%
3 - 1
6.1%
3 - 0
5.8%