Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Indonesia
51.1% win probability
Predicted winner
24.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.61 - 1.02
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Indonesia

1409#96
AFC
VS

Mozambique

1370#136
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

51.1% 24.9% 24.0%
IDN
MOZ
39
Rating Gap
1.61
Exp. Goals IDN
1.02
Exp. Goals MOZ
76.0%
IDN No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 5W/2W

Indonesia won 5 of their last 10 games; Mozambique won 2. Current form favours Indonesia.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 1991

Indonesia have a major tournament title to their name; Mozambique do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 23% W

Mozambique have won 23% of games entering as underdogs (69W from 299). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.76 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Rating Gap 39 pts

Indonesia hold a 39-point rating edge: roughly 5.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
IDN Win
0
Draws
0
MOZ Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
123
Games Played
125
39.0%
Win %
31.2%
1.62
Goals Per Game
1.02
1.64
Goals Against / Game
1.30
33.3%
Clean Sheet %
29.6%
32.5%
Failed to Score %
34.4%
8.9%
Goalless Draws %
8.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,409
Current Rating
1,370
#96
World Ranking
#136
61.5%
Win as Favourite
46.5%
19.0%
Win as Underdog
23.1%
10
Longest Win Streak
5
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1498 (1969)
Peak Rating
1455 (2025)
10W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
14W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

51.1% 24.9% 24.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.8%
1 - 0
11.6%
2 - 1
9.5%
2 - 0
9.3%
0 - 1
7.4%
0 - 0
7.2%