Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Indonesia
70.2% win probability
Predicted winner
17.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.25 - 0.80
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.0
Over 2.5: 59%
Total goals

Indonesia

1409#96
AFC
VS

Cambodia

1332#165
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

70.2% 17.9% 11.9%
IDN
CAM
77
Rating Gap
2.25
Exp. Goals IDN
0.80
Exp. Goals CAM
88.1%
IDN No Defeat
3.0
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 16W-0W

Indonesia hold the historical edge: 16W-2D-0L across 18 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 16pp

Indonesia keep 29.6% clean sheets vs Cambodia's 13.5%, a 16pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 77 pts

Indonesia hold a 77-point rating edge: roughly 11.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 5W/3W

Indonesia won 5 of their last 10 games; Cambodia won 3. Current form favours Indonesia.

Tournament Pedigree 1991

Indonesia have a major tournament title to their name; Cambodia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 14% W

Cambodia have won 14% of games entering as underdogs (26W from 189). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

18 meeting(s) · 2001-2022

16
IDN Win
2
Draws
0
CAM Win
77
Goals For
9
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
123
Games Played
99
39.0%
Win %
26.3%
1.62
Goals Per Game
1.13
1.64
Goals Against / Game
2.47
33.3%
Clean Sheet %
17.2%
32.5%
Failed to Score %
37.4%
8.9%
Goalless Draws %
3.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,409
Current Rating
1,332
#96
World Ranking
#165
61.3%
Win as Favourite
47.9%
18.9%
Win as Underdog
13.8%
10
Longest Win Streak
4
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1498 (1969)
Peak Rating
1383 (1995)
10W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

70.2% 17.9% 11.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 23 Dec 22 AWAY
2 - 1
AFF Championship
H 09 Dec 21 NEUTRAL
4 - 2
AFF Championship
A 08 Jun 17 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
H 25 Sep 14 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 07 Dec 08 AWAY
4 - 0
AFF Championship
H 21 Aug 08 AWAY
7 - 0
Friendly Tournament
H 13 Dec 04 NEUTRAL
8 - 0
AFF Championship
H 17 Dec 02 AWAY
4 - 2
AFF Championship
A 29 Apr 01 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 22 Apr 01 AWAY
6 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
11.9%
1 - 0
10.6%
2 - 1
9.6%
3 - 0
9.0%
1 - 1
8.5%
3 - 1
7.2%