Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Indonesia
80.2% win probability
Predicted winner
13.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.57 - 0.59
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.2
Over 2.5: 61%
Total goals

Indonesia

1432#77
AFC
VS

Cambodia

1324#170
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

80.2% 13.5% 6.3%
IDN
CAM
108
Rating Gap
2.57
Exp. Goals IDN
0.59
Exp. Goals CAM
93.7%
IDN No Defeat
3.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 17W-0W

Indonesia hold the historical edge: 17W-2D-0L across 19 meetings.

Rating Gap 108 pts

Indonesia hold a 108-point rating edge: roughly 16.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Clean Sheet Rate 16pp

Indonesia keep 29.8% clean sheets vs Cambodia's 14.0%, a 16pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 6W/4W

Indonesia won 6 of their last 10 games; Cambodia won 4. Current form favours Indonesia.

Tournament Pedigree 2026

Indonesia have a major tournament title to their name; Cambodia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 15% W

Cambodia have won 15% of games entering as underdogs (29W from 193). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

19 meeting(s) · 2001-2026

17
IDN Win
2
Draws
0
CAM Win
82
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
130
Games Played
106
40.0%
Win %
26.4%
1.70
Goals Per Game
1.14
1.58
Goals Against / Game
2.44
33.8%
Clean Sheet %
17.9%
31.5%
Failed to Score %
35.8%
9.2%
Goalless Draws %
2.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,432
Current Rating
1,324
#77
World Ranking
#170
60.8%
Win as Favourite
44.9%
19.0%
Win as Underdog
15.0%
10
Longest Win Streak
4
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1505 (1969)
Peak Rating
1383 (1995)
11W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

80.2% 13.5% 6.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Jul 26
5 - 1
ASEAN Championship
H 23 Dec 22
2 - 1
ASEAN Championship
H 09 Dec 21NEUTRAL
4 - 2
ASEAN Championship
A 08 Jun 17
0 - 2
Friendly
H 25 Sep 14
1 - 0
Friendly
A 07 Dec 08
0 - 4
ASEAN Championship
A 21 Aug 08
0 - 7
Friendly
H 13 Dec 04NEUTRAL
8 - 0
ASEAN Championship
H 17 Dec 02
4 - 2
ASEAN Championship
A 29 Apr 01
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
14.1%
3 - 0
12.1%
1 - 0
10.9%
2 - 1
8.2%
4 - 0
7.8%
3 - 1
7.1%