Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Indonesia
46.3% win probability
Predicted winner
24.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.61 - 1.23
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 54%
Total goals

Indonesia

1389#113
AFC
VS

Bulgaria

1363#140
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

46.3% 24.6% 29.1%
IDN
BUL
26
Rating Gap
1.61
Exp. Goals IDN
1.23
Exp. Goals BUL
70.9%
IDN No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Recent Form 4W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Indonesia 4/10, Bulgaria 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Win Streak 3 games

Bulgaria are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.08 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 54%).

Tournament Pedigree 1991

Both teams are major tournament winners. Indonesia's most recent title: 1991. Bulgaria's most recent title: 1932.

Rating Gap 26 pts

Indonesia hold a 26-point rating edge: roughly 3.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 1973-2026

0
IDN Win
0
Draws
2
BUL Win
0
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
121
Games Played
97
38.0%
Win %
25.8%
1.61
Goals Per Game
1.02
1.67
Goals Against / Game
1.63
32.2%
Clean Sheet %
23.7%
33.1%
Failed to Score %
36.1%
9.1%
Goalless Draws %
8.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,389
Current Rating
1,363
#113
World Ranking
#140
61.4%
Win as Favourite
51.2%
18.8%
Win as Underdog
25.1%
10
Longest Win Streak
5
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1498 (1969)
Peak Rating
1508 (1995)
10W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

46.3% 24.6% 29.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 30 Mar 26 AWAY
0 - 1
FIFA Series
A 04 Feb 73 AWAY
0 - 4
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.6%
1 - 0
9.4%
2 - 1
9.3%
2 - 0
7.6%
0 - 1
7.2%
1 - 2
7.1%