Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Haiti
63.0% win probability
Predicted winner
21.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.92 - 0.83
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Haiti

1466#50
CONCACAF
VS

Peru

1393#111
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

63.0% 21.4% 15.6%
HAI
PER
73
Rating Gap
1.92
Exp. Goals HAI
0.83
Exp. Goals PER
84.4%
HAI No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-0W

Peru hold the historical edge: 4W-2D-0L across 6 meetings.

Recent Form 4W/2W

Haiti won 4 of their last 10 games; Peru won 2. Current form favours Haiti.

Rating Gap 73 pts

Haiti hold a 73-point rating edge: roughly 10.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2006

Both teams are major tournament winners. Haiti's most recent title: 2006. Peru's most recent title: 1975.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.88 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

Underdog Record 26% W

Peru have won 26% of games entering as underdogs (127W from 496). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 1977-2026

0
HAI Win
2
Draws
4
PER Win
6
Goals For
13
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
110
Games Played
123
50.0%
Win %
36.6%
2.21
Goals Per Game
1.08
1.35
Goals Against / Game
1.11
30.0%
Clean Sheet %
35.0%
21.8%
Failed to Score %
40.7%
5.5%
Goalless Draws %
11.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,466
Current Rating
1,393
#50
World Ranking
#111
53.1%
Win as Favourite
48.1%
25.0%
Win as Underdog
25.6%
10
Longest Win Streak
9
21
Longest Unbeaten Run
15
1517 (2025)
Peak Rating
1541 (2018)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

63.0% 21.4% 15.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 05 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Friendly
A 04 Jun 16 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Copa América
H 23 Feb 03 AWAY
5 - 1
Friendly
D 14 Feb 00 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup
D 29 May 77 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
A 26 May 77 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
12.2%
2 - 0
11.8%
1 - 1
10.2%
2 - 1
9.8%
3 - 0
7.5%
0 - 0
6.4%