Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Guinea
54.6% win probability
Predicted winner
24.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.70 - 0.97
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Guinea

1438#64
CAF
VS

Benin

1397#106
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

54.6% 24.0% 21.4%
GUI
BEN
42
Rating Gap
1.70
Exp. Goals GUI
0.97
Exp. Goals BEN
78.6%
GUI No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 2005

Guinea have a major tournament title to their name; Benin do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 16% W

Benin have won 16% of games entering as underdogs (38W from 230). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 14 games

Guinea's longest unbeaten run is 14 games vs Benin's 8. Guinea have shown greater resilience historically.

Rating Gap 42 pts

Guinea hold a 42-point rating edge: roughly 6.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 2.40 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2019-2026

0
GUI Win
0
Draws
2
BEN Win
0
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
96
35.7%
Win %
32.3%
1.22
Goals Per Game
1.02
1.15
Goals Against / Game
1.17
31.8%
Clean Sheet %
29.2%
29.5%
Failed to Score %
31.2%
8.5%
Goalless Draws %
7.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,438
Current Rating
1,397
#64
World Ranking
#106
46.9%
Win as Favourite
43.2%
27.9%
Win as Underdog
16.5%
5
Longest Win Streak
3
14
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1523 (1977)
Peak Rating
1444 (2021)
11W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

54.6% 24.0% 21.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Friendly
A 11 Jun 19 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
11.8%
1 - 1
11.4%
2 - 0
10.0%
2 - 1
9.7%
0 - 0
6.9%
0 - 1
6.7%