Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Kenya
55.2% win probability
Predicted winner
23.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.02 - 1.78
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Grenada

1342#156
CONCACAF
VS

Kenya

1407#98
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

21.5% 23.3% 55.2%
GRN
KEN
65
Rating Gap
1.02
Exp. Goals GRN
1.78
Exp. Goals KEN
44.8%
GRN No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 11pp

Kenya keep 30.8% clean sheets vs Grenada's 20.2%, a 11pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 6W/4W

Grenada won 6 of their last 10 games; Kenya won 4. Current form favours Grenada.

Rating Gap 65 pts

Kenya hold a 65-point rating edge: roughly 9.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2017

Both teams are major tournament winners. Grenada's most recent title: 2017. Kenya's most recent title: 2017.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.84 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 53%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

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Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
GRN Win
0
Draws
1
KEN Win
0
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
101
Games Played
111
30.7%
Win %
37.8%
1.35
Goals Per Game
1.12
2.12
Goals Against / Game
1.04
22.8%
Clean Sheet %
36.0%
34.7%
Failed to Score %
30.6%
6.9%
Goalless Draws %
10.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,342
Current Rating
1,407
#156
World Ranking
#98
45.5%
Win as Favourite
43.9%
23.1%
Win as Underdog
28.4%
6
Longest Win Streak
6
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1463 (1971)
Peak Rating
1488 (2003)
3W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-13L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

21.5% 23.3% 55.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 30 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 3
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.0%
0 - 1
10.8%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 2
9.7%
1 - 0
6.2%
0 - 0
6.1%