Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Jamaica
81.2% win probability
Predicted winner
13.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.46 - 2.44
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 56%
Total goals

Grenada

1342#155
CONCACAF
VS

Jamaica

1472#45
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

5.2% 13.6% 81.2%
GRN
JAM
129
Rating Gap
0.46
Exp. Goals GRN
2.44
Exp. Goals JAM
18.8%
GRN No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 11W-2W

Jamaica hold the historical edge: 11W-2D-2L across 15 meetings.

Rating Gap 129 pts

Jamaica hold a 129-point rating edge: roughly 19.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Clean Sheet Rate 14pp

Jamaica keep 34.2% clean sheets vs Grenada's 20.2%, a 14pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Grenada 6/10, Jamaica 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2017

Both teams are major tournament winners. Grenada's most recent title: 2017. Jamaica's most recent title: 2014.

Goal Patterns 2.9 xG

Combined avg of 2.96 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.9 (Over 2.5 probability: 56%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

15 meeting(s) · 2002-2026

2
GRN Win
2
Draws
11
JAM Win
11
Goals For
35
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
101
Games Played
160
30.7%
Win %
44.4%
1.35
Goals Per Game
1.56
2.12
Goals Against / Game
1.16
22.8%
Clean Sheet %
33.8%
34.7%
Failed to Score %
24.4%
6.9%
Goalless Draws %
5.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,342
Current Rating
1,472
#155
World Ranking
#45
45.5%
Win as Favourite
53.3%
23.1%
Win as Underdog
23.8%
6
Longest Win Streak
7
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
23
1463 (1971)
Peak Rating
1530 (2011)
3W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

5.2% 13.6% 81.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 18 Jan 26 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
A 12 Oct 23 AWAY
1 - 4
Copa América
A 17 Aug 18 AWAY
1 - 5
Friendly
H 06 Jun 11 NEUTRAL
4 - 0
CONCACAF Gold Cup
H 03 Dec 10 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup
H 14 Dec 08 AWAY
2 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup
H 05 Dec 08 AWAY
4 - 0
CFU Caribbean Cup
H 10 Jun 08 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
A 13 Nov 02 AWAY
1 - 4
CONCACAF Gold Cup
A 02 Aug 02 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
16.4%
0 - 1
13.4%
0 - 3
13.3%
0 - 4
8.2%
1 - 2
7.5%
1 - 1
6.2%