Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Cayman Islands
56.0% win probability
Predicted winner
24.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.88 - 1.67
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Gibraltar

1246#213
UEFA
VS

Cayman Islands

1314#176
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

19.7% 24.2% 56.0%
GIB
CAY
67
Rating Gap
0.88
Exp. Goals GIB
1.67
Exp. Goals CAY
43.9%
GIB No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 1.48 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Recent Form 2W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Gibraltar 2/10, Cayman Islands 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2007

Gibraltar have a major tournament title to their name; Cayman Islands do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 67 pts

Cayman Islands hold a 67-point rating edge: roughly 10.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 10% W

Gibraltar have won 10% of games entering as underdogs (9W from 94). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
GIB Win
0
Draws
0
CAY Win
4
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
92
Games Played
43
12.0%
Win %
25.6%
0.46
Goals Per Game
0.79
2.89
Goals Against / Game
2.28
17.4%
Clean Sheet %
25.6%
66.3%
Failed to Score %
39.5%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
4.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,246
Current Rating
1,314
#213
World Ranking
#176
31.6%
Win as Favourite
44.4%
9.6%
Win as Underdog
14.9%
3
Longest Win Streak
3
7
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1397 (2013)
Peak Rating
1362 (2019)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

19.7% 24.2% 56.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jun 26 AWAY
4 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.0%
1 - 1
11.5%
0 - 2
10.9%
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 0
7.8%
1 - 0
6.9%