Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Germany
70.5% win probability
Predicted winner
19.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.01 - 0.61
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Germany

1536#19
UEFA
VS

Ghana

1429#74
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

70.5% 19.3% 10.2%
GER
GHA
107
Rating Gap
2.01
Exp. Goals GER
0.61
Exp. Goals GHA
89.8%
GER No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Win Streak 7 games

Germany are currently on a 7-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Recent Form 7W/4W

Germany won 7 of their last 10 games; Ghana won 4. Current form favours Germany.

Underdog Record 33% W

Ghana have won 33% of games entering as underdogs (71W from 215). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 4 games

Only 4 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.77 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Rating Gap 107 pts

Germany hold a 107-point rating edge: roughly 16.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

4 meeting(s) · 1993-2026

3
GER Win
1
Draws
0
GHA Win
11
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
128
Games Played
120
55.5%
Win %
36.7%
2.26
Goals Per Game
1.23
1.09
Goals Against / Game
1.04
35.2%
Clean Sheet %
35.8%
14.8%
Failed to Score %
34.2%
3.9%
Goalless Draws %
11.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,536
Current Rating
1,429
#19
World Ranking
#74
64.5%
Win as Favourite
51.6%
35.7%
Win as Underdog
33.0%
8
Longest Win Streak
10
22
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1676 (2014)
Peak Rating
1542 (2008)
2W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-12L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

70.5% 19.3% 10.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 30 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
D 21 Jun 14 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
FIFA World Cup
A 23 Jun 10 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 14 Apr 93 AWAY
6 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
14.7%
1 - 0
14.6%
3 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 1
8.9%
0 - 0
7.3%