Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Germany
39.7% win probability
Predicted winner
27.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.31 - 1.18
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Germany

1560#14
UEFA
VS

Côte d'Ivoire

1545#17
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

39.7% 27.0% 33.3%
GER
CIV
15
Rating Gap
1.31
Exp. Goals GER
1.18
Exp. Goals CIV
66.7%
GER No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.80 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Recent Form 9W/7W

Germany won 9 of their last 10 games; Côte d'Ivoire won 7. Current form favours Germany.

Tournament Pedigree 2017

Germany have a major tournament title to their name; Côte d'Ivoire do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Penalty Shootouts 67% PSO

Shootout record: Germany: 2W-1L; Côte d'Ivoire: 11W-8L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Gap 15 pts

Germany hold a 15-point rating edge: roughly 2.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2009-2026

1
GER Win
1
Draws
0
CIV Win
4
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
133
Games Played
145
56.4%
Win %
51.7%
2.29
Goals Per Game
1.49
1.09
Goals Against / Game
0.82
34.6%
Clean Sheet %
42.8%
14.3%
Failed to Score %
29.7%
3.8%
Goalless Draws %
13.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,560
Current Rating
1,545
#14
World Ranking
#17
64.7%
Win as Favourite
54.3%
35.7%
Win as Underdog
38.8%
11
Longest Win Streak
7
22
Longest Unbeaten Run
26
1676 (2014)
Peak Rating
1583 (2013)
2W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
11W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

39.7% 27.0% 33.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 20 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 18 Nov 09 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
10.9%
0 - 1
9.8%
2 - 1
8.4%
0 - 0
8.3%
1 - 2
7.5%